Portuguese legislative elections: narrow victory for the ruling right

The far right, represented by the Chega ("Enough") party, which continues to make progress compared to the last election, reached the 20% mark for the first time and is close behind the socialist opposition.

According to an exit poll broadcast by public television RTP, the outgoing government camp obtained between 29 and 34% of the vote, compared to 21 to 26% for the Socialist Party and 20 to 24% for Chega.

Mr. Montenegro, a 52-year-old lawyer who has consistently refused to govern with Chega's support, hoped to form a larger majority by negotiating the support of the Liberal Initiative party, which would have come in fourth with 4 to 7 percent of the vote.

The partial official results will be known later this evening.

In terms of seats, the outgoing coalition would have won 85 to 96 seats out of a total of 230, which remains below the threshold of 116 elected representatives synonymous with an absolute majority.

Even with six to twelve mandates for the Liberals, Mr. Montenegro risks finding himself once again caught between the Socialist Party of Pedro Nuno Santos, a 48-year-old economist, and the extreme right led by André Ventura, a 42-year-old former seminarian and lawyer, who made a name for himself as a colorful football commentator.

"Politics and Business"

Forced to resign last March amid suspicions of a conflict of interest, the head of government thus appears to have won the bet of relying on the verdict of the ballot box to ensure his political survival, but his gains appear insufficient to change the balance of power in the Assembly.

He may have suffered from having called the election himself to avoid having to answer to a parliamentary inquiry into the activities of a consultancy firm registered at his home and in the name of his children.

"No one has ever been as transparent as me," he said at his final campaign rally, while the Socialist opposition leader accused him of "mixing politics and business" by receiving money from private companies after taking office.

The Socialist Party, narrowly defeated in 2024 after eight years in power, remains the big loser of the evening, as it risks being overtaken by Chega as the leading opposition party.

In the outgoing parliament, the ruling coalition had only two more MPs than the Socialists.

Migration policy

In one year, Mr. Montenegro's government has taken several measures to improve purchasing power, by increasing pensions and the minimum wage, and by accepting the demands of several categories of civil servants, including teachers, doctors, and police officers.

He also provided tax breaks for young people.

He also toughened the migration policy of the previous socialist government of Antonio Costa, which was one of the most flexible in Europe.

As the number of foreigners living in Portugal has quadrupled since 2017, now reaching around 15% of the population, out of a total of 10 million inhabitants, immigration has burst into the political debate.

Since its founding in 2019, Chega has experienced meteoric growth, gaining 18% of the vote last March, increasing its number of seats from 12 to 50.

Its president, André Ventura, saw his campaign disrupted by two illnesses he suffered in front of television cameras, but he appeared in better shape when he voted on Sunday.

To capitalize on the prime minister's troubles and the influx of migrant workers from South Asia, he hammered home the traditional rhetoric of populist parties against the corruption of political elites and immigrants.