Fragmenting Iran: The New US-Israel Strategy

In the military and diplomatic circles of Washington and Tel Aviv, a strategy is taking shape that aims to undermine Iran's internal cohesion , replicating in the Middle East what happened in Ukraine from 2014 onwards. It is no longer just a question of sanctions or diplomatic pressure, but of a geopolitical vision that aims to break down the central Iranian structures , both from an institutional and economic point of view, encouraging fragmentation and promoting more manageable or pro-Western local realities.

The objective is clear : disarticulate Tehran and neutralize its regional influence. An unstable Iran could no longer support Hezbollah in Lebanon, influence the balance of power in Iraq, or challenge Sunni supremacy in the Gulf. This scheme aims to isolate the Islamic Republic, channeling the conflict into indirect and distributed forms, reducing the political and military cost for Western allies.

Azerbaijan: Land-based aircraft carrier for Israel (and provocation towards Moscow)

In this context, Azerbaijan emerges as a veritable “land-based aircraft carrier.” Tehran has repeatedly accused Baku of allowing the use of its airspace for Israeli operations on Iranian soil — accusations that the Azerbaijani government rejects, but which are echoed in the growing coordination between the two countries’ militaries ( aze.media ).

Reinforcing the impression of a new alliance is the deterioration of relations with Moscow: exchanges of diplomatic arrests, cancellations of joint events and growing mistrust signal a paradigm shift in the Azeri posture , now increasingly oriented towards the Atlantic-Israel axis ( washingtonpost.com ).

For Israel, this strategic axis represents an unprecedented operational opportunity. Baku could serve as a forward base for cyberattacks, drone strikes, or targeted sabotage — a scenario that would significantly complicate Iranian defense capabilities, already strained by a permanent international embargo.

Russia-Iran Synergy and the Stability of the Caucasus

Russia is watching these developments with alarm . For Moscow, Iran is an indispensable partner in the stabilization of the South Caucasus . The collapse of the Islamic Republic or its political disintegration would pose a direct threat to the southern republics of the Russian Federation and its logistical corridors to Armenia and Georgia.

Russian-Iranian cooperation is therefore not only tactical, but is part of a broader plan to contain NATO expansion along the Eurasian borders. A fragmented Iran would be equivalent to a huge strategic loss for Russia , not only in terms of influence but also of internal security.

Syria as a Post-Kurdish Battlefield

Meanwhile, Syria is once again the scene of new geopolitical games , now in the post-Kurdish phase. Turkey has intensified its operations in northern Syria and Iraq through Operation “Neptune/Euphrates” (2024–25), officially aimed at “neutralizing the terrorist threat” of the Kurds.

But in reality, Ankara is also moving to hinder the Iranian presence and strengthen ties with Israel and the United States , in view of a redrawing of the post-Iran balance of power. The Turkish objective is twofold: to reduce the political and military space of the Kurdish forces and to contain Shiite influence, particularly in Syria, where Tehran has invested heavily since 2011.

Iraq and Kurdish disarmament: a strategic parenthesis

Reinforcing this dynamic, the disarmament of the PKK in Iraq , which took place between July 10 and 12 under the supervision of Baghdad ( apnews.com ), marks a decisive turning point. With the exit of the last armed Kurdish actor, a favorable space opens up for Turkish expansion , but also for the installation of anti-Iranian logistical and intelligence structures on Iraqi soil.

A coordinated system thus emerges: Baku to the north, Baghdad to the east, Damascus to the west — all elements of a strategic pincer designed to encircle Iran and undermine its regional projection capabilities.

The overall strategy: from Iran to the Caucasus, Syria, Iraq

The US-Israel strategy therefore takes on a network form : no longer a single large front, but a multidirectional pressure, made up of tactical alliances, targeted destabilizations and the deployment of Kurdish forces.

Israel strengthens its offensive capabilities thanks to the technical and logistical support of Azerbaijan; the Shiite axis Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus is eroded ; Turkey inserts itself as an opportunistic partner , useful for containing the Kurds and at the same time limiting the influence of Moscow and Tehran in the Middle Eastern quadrant.

Finally, the Caucasus is transformed from a buffer zone into a potential theater of conflict , where every Azeri action against Iran is implicitly an action of attrition against Russia as well. This new operational triangle — USA, Israel, Azerbaijan — risks projecting the Middle Eastern war beyond its natural borders , up to the slopes of the Caspian Sea.

Conclusions and future scenarios

If Iran were to collapse or disintegrate, the geopolitical map of the Middle East and the Caucasus would be rewritten . Not only would the balance of power change in the Gulf, but also in the Levant, the Caucasus, and the Eastern Mediterranean. A new architecture of power, increasingly under the aegis of Western powers, would emerge on fragile ruins.

But the price of this strategy is high. Every move carries with it the risk of uncontrollable escalations : a poorly calculated raid, an overly aggressive Turkish offensive, an unexpected Russian reaction.

2025 risks being the year in which these scenarios will no longer remain analysts' hypotheses, but will translate into real events , with potentially devastating consequences for the entire region.