US-EU agreement reached on tariffs, 15%

"We did it, it's the most important deal ever."

In the hills of southwestern Scotland, the negotiations over tariffs between the European Union and the United States have concluded, at least for now. It concluded after a meeting that lasted less than an hour, starting with a frowning Donald Trump and a rarely seen so grim-faced Ursula von der Leyen. It concluded with the confirmation of the base tariff that had been agreed upon by the Sherpas in recent days: 15%. The Commission president flew to the Trump Turnberry resort accompanied by chief negotiator Maros Sefcovic and the technical team that had been trying for months to soften the American position. Von der Leyen arrived at the Clyde Estuary Golf Club in the afternoon. Trump had just finished playing "with his son Eric and some friends," the White House spokeswoman reported. Just before the meeting began, both Trump and von der Leyen reiterated that the game was still up in the air.

Trump and von der Leyen announced the agreement only to the journalists accompanying Trump. "The EU will invest €600 billion in the US and purchase €750 billion in energy from us," exulted the tycoon, who, before the meeting, had launched yet another attack on Europe on his favorite topics: immigration and the Green Deal. Washington has secured the pharmaceutical sector's exclusion from the agreement and, in effect, has achieved the rebalancing of trade relations it has vehemently demanded since the beginning of its mandate. "I want to personally thank Trump; he is a great negotiator but also a dealmaker," von der Leyen conceded. "Ursula has done a great job for the EU, not for us," was Trump's provocation in the opening moments of the summit.

The EU and the US are now working on "a tariff-rate quota system" for steel and aluminum "based on historical trade flows, accompanied by a common policy to manage imports from outside the EU and the US." This was announced in Brussels following the agreement on tariffs, which calls for a 50% tariff on industrial metals. Brussels and Washington discussed "a steel and metals union, reflecting a common understanding," which recognizes that "the real challenge is global overcapacity": "There was broad consensus on the need to work together as allies" and "coordinate against unfair competition from third countries."

For Europe, von der Leyen assured, the glass is half full. "Let's not forget where we started," the president explained, recalling that the automotive sector was included in the 15% tariff and emphasizing that the agreement opens the doors of the American market to European companies. The 15%, she explained, will also cover semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, although Trump did not agree on this last point. Not only that, but the tariff on so-called "strategic products" will be 0%, the Palais Berlaymont speaker noted. It's by no means a given that she will be able to convince all 27 European leaders. But, at the moment, the Commission does not plan relief measures for the hardest-hit sectors. On the other hand, von der Leyen explained that she wants to accelerate the trade agreements currently underway, primarily Mercosur, but also partnerships with Southeast Asia and the Far East. But the most important point, he emphasized, is that the agreement will "restore stability" at a time when Europe was beginning to feel the lingering uncertainty of the second Trump era. That everything between Washington and Brussels ended with the Scottish pact is something few in Europe are convinced of.

Berlin certainly applauded the agreement, claiming that "an unnecessary escalation has been avoided." It's an escalation that Giorgia Meloni certainly didn't want, either. She seems satisfied, reserving the right to "see the details." But there are some unclear points. These points will keep the sherpas busy in the coming weeks, given that an official text of the agreement has not yet been released. Among the most sensitive issues for the EU is certainly steel and aluminum. "Nothing will change," Trump concluded at the press briefing, so they will remain at 50/50. But in Brussels, they assure us that the game isn't over yet. It just needs to be resolved once the spotlight is off.