What will change in banks with the return of the ECB rate to 2 percent?

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The return of the ECB rate to 2 percent was greeted with great satisfaction by political forces and trade associations because it should stimulate the economy, especially since further cuts are expected by the end of the year (expected terminal rate between 1.5 and 1.7 percent). But will it really be like this? According to Fabi, the autonomous Federation of bank employees led by Lando Maria Sileoni, to truly favor access to credit for families and businesses, it is not enough to reduce the cost of money: "Political direction is needed". This is because in the face of the first seven cuts made by the ECB starting from June 2024 until today (the eighth), no significant advantages have been seen for families and businesses. “Monetary policy can open the door, but if the banking sector keeps it ajar, the economic recovery remains on paper,” observes Sileoni, according to whom the signals coming from the data on mortgages and loans to businesses show that the benefits of the new monetary course are appearing slowly, while what is needed for the country's growth and employment is “a leap forward”. Here are the data processed by Fabi: from December 2022 to March 2025, the stock of bank loans to businesses has decreased by 46 billion euros, going from 647 to 601 billion. A net drop of 7.1 percent which, experts say, is mainly the result of the difficulties of access to credit by the production system, aggravated by high rates, greater selectivity of banks and an uncertain economic context both internationally (wars, duties) and domestically (weak growth).

But the most interesting fact is that the absolute minimum level of financing was reached in October 2024 (596 billion, i.e. 51 billion less than at the end of 2022) when, that is, Italian banks were in the golden age: they continued to record double-digit growth in profits that had already been record-breaking in 2023 thanks to high rates. “It's the horse that doesn't drink,” the ABI, the association of Italian banks, has always responded to those who protested about the low disbursements to the productive sector . Which is also true because uncertainty and international geopolitical tensions do not help investment decisions, but it cannot be ruled out that the institutions found it more convenient for a certain period to keep liquidity with the ECB which paid 4 percent on deposits rather than run the risk of seeing bad loans grow again by financing a real economy affected by various shocks. Things have only improved a little in recent times. The overall stock of bank loans to businesses went from a minimum of 596 billion in October 2024 to 601 billion in March 2025 (plus 5 billion). Moreover, this is precisely the period in which the infamous banking risk broke out, a consolidation phase much feared by the business world because it is thought that it will lead to a worsening of the conditions of access to credit, a theory of which, however, there is no evidence. In any case, it is true that it is not enough for the ECB to loosen monetary conditions and that this stimulus must be promptly transmitted to the real world otherwise, there is the risk that returning to the 2 percent rate represents only a technical-financial mechanism, although indispensable to maintain price stability. Some more effects will be seen on mortgages which have already seen the variable rate overtake the fixed rate in recent weeks.

According to a report by Mutuionline, following today's cut, the average Tan (Net Annual Rate) of 20- or 30-year variable-rate loans is set to drop further in the coming weeks, from 2.83 percent recorded in May to 2.58 percent. This is a drop of almost 90 basis points compared to January, when the variable Tan was 3.71 percent, and of over two percentage points compared to May 2024 (4.77 percent), which will lead to a monthly payment saving of around 18-20 euros for a loan of 140 thousand euros. Fabi also recalls that it is the holders of variable-rate mortgages who have suffered the effects of the rate surge in the two-year period 2022-2023, with payments rising by as much as 70-80 percent . Of the total 25.7 million Italian families, approximately 3.5 million have a home loan, out of a total of 6.9 million citizens who are also indebted with other forms of financing, such as consumer credit and personal loans, the costs of which have already begun to decline slightly.

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