Baja California and Sonora, with worse drought than a year ago

Although the rainfall recorded during the first half of June led to a general reduction in drought conditions nationwide, states such as Baja California, Sonora, and Baja California Sur are facing a more critical situation than that observed during the same period last year, according to the National Water Commission's (Conagua) Drought Monitor.

According to the report, as of June 15, 2025, 45.6% of the national territory is not affected by drought, which represents a significant improvement compared to the 12.2% recorded on the same date in 2024.

On a year-over-year basis, areas with moderate to exceptional drought (categories D1 to D4) decreased from 73.79 to 37.5 percent, while extreme and exceptional drought (D3 and D4) decreased from 37.5 to 18.7 percent. Abnormally dry conditions (D0), meanwhile, increased slightly, from 14.0 to 16.9 percent.

Despite the more encouraging national outlook, the northwest of the country faces a contrasting situation. In Sonora, 100% of the territory experienced some degree of drought, with 92.7% classified as severe (D2), extreme (D3), or exceptional (D4). This state went from having 84.7% of its municipalities experiencing drought conditions in 2024 to all its municipalities affected by 2025.

In Sinaloa, 94.4% of municipalities also experienced drought conditions, while Baja California's percentage of affected municipalities increased from 0% to 85.7%. In Baja California Sur, 80% of municipalities are experiencing drought, up from 0% the previous year.

On the other hand, southern and central states such as Guerrero, Colima, Morelos, Mexico City, Tlaxcala, and Guanajuato showed 100% of their surface areas unaffected, while other states such as Oaxaca and Veracruz reported significant reductions in drought levels.

"Various meteorological phenomena caused these rains, such as the passage of two tropical waves (No. 2 and 3) and low-pressure channels, in addition to the circulation and cloud formations of Tropical Storm Dalila, which generated significant rainfall along Mexico's Pacific coast. Thanks to these precipitations, areas of extreme and exceptional drought (D3 and D4) in Sonora and Chihuahua decreased, while areas of moderate drought (D1) and abnormally dry conditions (D0) decreased in western, central, and southern Mexico," authorities stated.

Municipalities

The report also indicated an improvement in the number of unaffected municipalities nationwide: 1,860 municipalities are free of drought or abnormally dry conditions, compared to only 48 in June 2024. The number of municipalities experiencing drought also increased from 2,138 to 308 in one year, a decrease of 85.6 percent.

Regarding watersheds, 9 showed a decrease in drought areas, 3 increased, and one remained unchanged.

The Baja California Peninsula region showed the greatest increase in percentage of area with drought, going from 0% in June 2024 to 85.7% in 2025.

In contrast, the Valley of Mexico region, as well as the Balsas, Lerma-Santiago-Pacific, and South Pacific regions, made a remarkable recovery and were reported drought-free as of June 15, 2025.