Less crops and less rain put strong pressure on the price of basic foodstuffs.

Colombian agriculture has been facing a series of dynamics that, while benefiting from these changes, are also a wake-up call for the country's production and development. While record figures have been reported in recent months, it is also true that planting and weather factors have been affecting food prices.

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Indeed, in recent days the Rural Planning Unit (Upra) reported that in May (the latest available record) food prices increased by 0.6%, but for the current year the figure stood at 4.88% and the annual variation in inflation for these products increased by 4.71%.

When breaking down the figure, only the monthly figure was 0.28 percentage points higher than the national variation of 0.32% , with the first division having the greatest variation for that month. The same was true for the other reference periods.

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Likewise, analyzing prices by product, tomato prices increased 12.28% monthly in May, followed by coffee and coffee-based products, with 5.47%, and beef and beef products, with 0.70% . At the same time, year-to-date figures again show tomatoes with the largest increases (61.38%), fresh fruit (9.83%), and beef and beef products (3.72%).

Álvaro Palacio, president of the Colombian Horticultural Association (Asohofrucol), explained that the upward variations in products such as tomatoes and fresh fruit are occurring due to the low supply of products that are in high demand on the tables of Colombian households .

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" The specific reason is due to planting. We're in a time when planting is declining, and this creates a phenomenon of reduced supply, which ends up directly impacting the price of these products ," he indicated.

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Likewise, the union leader asserted that climatic factors such as the heavy rains that have impacted various production areas have led to a decline in crop flowering, especially for the papelillo and lorena avocados, and for citrus fruits such as lemons.

Another point of analysis was made by the director of Upra, Dora Inés Rey, who stated that the behavior of food prices confirms the importance of planning agricultural production based on technical information .

(Read: The foods that have seen the greatest price increases and decreases in the country )

" Tools such as productive planning allow us to anticipate supply pressures, identify cycles of shortages, and guide public policies that contribute to stabilizing prices and ensuring food security ," he stated.

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However, according to Andrés Valencia, former Minister of Agriculture, the impact of the CPI on food is already being felt in the Colombian economy, and this may be due to increased demand for products as a result of the increase in the minimum wage.

“ We're already seeing the impact with this increased demand, and that's what's prevented us from lowering the country's total inflation rate below 5%. Eating out is also rising sharply, which may be affected by higher labor costs due to the increase in the minimum wage ,” he noted.

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What about other products?

Although data shows an increase in beef prices, Oscar Cubillos Pedraza, head of Fedegán's Office of Economic Planning and Research, emphasized that this trend is not only affecting beef, but also animal protein in general.

(See: Food prices rose 0.6% in May, driven by tomatoes, coffee and beef )

In this regard, the executive stated that inflation for this type of food is very likely to close the year with a price increase very similar to that of the general CPI, that is, close to 5%, due to various factors that prevent its reduction.

Among these, he mentions the cost of inputs, which, due to the dollar and its volatility, is pushing beef prices up . There's also the issue of consumption, which, while showing an improvement since last year, is beginning to rise with increasing demand.

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" Unfortunately, in this adjustment between supply and demand, the inflationary trend is heading upward. However, this trend is not exclusive to cattle; it is general for all meats and for all goods in the family basket ," he said.

(Read more: Regenerative agriculture gains ground as a response to climate change )

Meanwhile, in the coffee sector, two factors are driving up coffee prices. According to Gustavo Gómez, president of the National Association of Coffee Exporters of Colombia (Asoexport), the pressure on coffee prices is due to an increase in the C contract and climate variability.

“ The price increase is due to increases in the C contract, and the exchange rate has helped, especially in that contract, which has risen due to expectations of low production from Brazil this year, approximately 64 million bags, which is almost 6 million bags less than expected ,” he noted.

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It's worth noting that, as the National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) mentioned, although coffee production remains on the rise, climatic factors such as rainfall have also affected the sector's development.

According to the FNC, rainfall has exceeded historical averages by 90% in key departments such as Nariño, Cauca, and Huila , causing landslides and affecting more than 1,000 coffee-growing families.

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“ We are concerned about the rainfall pattern, which has exceeded the average by 90% across almost the entire national coffee-growing region, as reported by coffee-growing families to whom we continue to provide technical support ,” said Germán Bahamón, general manager of the National Federation of Coffee Growers.

The executive finally explained that the impact has been not only on rural infrastructure, but also on the ripening rates of the grain, which has shifted part of the harvest planned for April to the months of May, June, and July .

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