Transatlanticism never again?

The most important event in last Sunday's German elections happened after the polls had closed. After the celebrations at the party headquarters were over, or not, the political leaders went on television. And it was there that Friederich Merz made the statement that could be the most significant of his term in office. Especially if it is consistent.

The coalition that will govern Germany has not yet been finalized, let alone negotiated . The priorities of the next government of the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) have not yet been agreed, but the most important things have already been said.

“ My top priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can truly achieve independence from the United States. I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television show . But after Donald Trump’s latest statements last week, it is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.” And he dropped another bombshell. “ I am very curious to see how we will move towards the NATO summit at the end of June. Whether we will still be talking about NATO in its current form or whether we will have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly.” The decision to divorce could hardly have seemed more definitive. And more justified. And more complicated.

The German elections were mainly about the economy, first, and immigration later. In the end, the CDU won by a weak margin, the SPD lost by a landslide, both parties are forced to form coalitions to secure a majority in parliament, and the far-right Alternativ fur Deutschland (AFD) won everything it could have won: it more than doubled its electoral weight, is leading the opposition and we are counting down how far it could go in the next elections. The American contribution to this result, in addition to what Trump said and did about Ukraine in recent days , explains the statement by the next Chancellor.

Before the elections, Elon Musk , who is effectively part of this American administration and its armed wing through his technology platform, declared that only the AfD party could save Germany and gave it as much space as he could in his X. And in case there were any doubts about where the rest of the Administration was, JD Vance cleared them up in Munich a few weeks later, when he accused the governing parties of being afraid of the voice of the people, and then went to meet with Alice Wiedel, the leader of the AfD. A few days later, it was Trump's turn to declare that Ukraine was to blame for the war, that Zelensky is a dictator and to refuse to say the same about Putin . The American turnaround was swift and clear.

In the weeks since all this has happened, the mood in Europe has been one of outrage, horror and alienation. Europeans were expecting Trump 2.0 to get tough on Europe, to demand more investment in defence and to impose tariffs on European exports. But Europeans, even those most critical of Trump, were not expecting the new US administration to prefer Russia to the Europeans, Putin to Zelensky, and to make territorial threats to its allies while offering to cede Ukrainian territory to Moscow before negotiations even began. And yet, this is what happened. And this is what explains Merz’s statement.

What the new German chancellor meant was that if Europe cannot count on the Americans, then it must step aside. Not even Macron , who, as is natural for French leaders, thinks exactly this way, dared to be so clear when he spoke of “strategic autonomy”, a concept he has advocated for Europe.

All this, however, and considering the facts and the statements of the American president, it is easier to tell the Europeans that it will be done, than to actually do it. After Greenland, Musk and the AfD, JD Vance in Munich, and Trump on Zelensky, the difficult thing would be to present the Europeans as good allies. But what exactly does an autonomous Europe mean and how is it done? Do we have the budgets to have a European defense? Outside of NATO? Half in, half out? And do we have the capacity to agree, as a 27, on where to send these European forces and/or their weapons?

Whatever Europe's autonomous capacity, it is certain that the separation is underway. Transatlanticism will never be the same again. At least not for the next few years . And what are the Europeans going to do? And what about the Portuguese? Send troops to separate Ukrainians from Russians? And is Lajes safe? And without the United States of America, how can we be an Atlantic country?

We are entering a new era like someone entering a dark and stormy night. Unwillingly, unprepared and unable to choose not to enter. We will have to act quickly. And think even faster.