AIMA data changes national standard of living statistics

A study by the Faculty of Economics of Porto indicates that the national standard of living compared to the EU is "below what was thought", as the official figure is "overestimated" due to a lack of updated immigration data from AIMA.

"In fact, the Portuguese standard of living is lower than previously thought , naturally measured by GDP [Gross Domestic Product] per capita at purchasing power parity. It has been overestimated because it does not take into account the entire foreign resident population," Óscar Afonso, director of FEP and one of the authors of a study by FEP's Office of Economic, Business and Public Policy Studies (G3E2P), told Lusa, the Flash analysis No. 3 of 2025, released this Tuesday.

According to Óscar Afonso, official data show that "in 2023, the standard of living was 80.7% of the European Union [EU] average," placing Portugal in 18th place in Europe. "But if we adjust this using data from AIMA [the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum], we move to 78.92%, or 19th place," he says, also noting that in 2024, 2025, and 2026, "there will be a downward revision of 2.4 percentage points, which remains unchanged." According to the academic, if we consider the AIMA data and estimates from the study on population evolution, in 2024 “the standard of living will be at 79.18% against the official 81.6%, in 2025 it will be at 79.27% against the official 81.70%, and in 2026 79.47% against the official 81.9%”.

The issue at hand is the discrepancy between the data from the AIMA Interim Report on the Recovery of Pending Cases, released in April, which takes into account "the upward revision of the average population resulting from the new numbers of foreigners with legal resident status," and the data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), which has not yet been revised. "The foreign population has increased sharply . In 2017, it grew by 4.1%. In 2024, it grew by 14.4%, and there will already be 1.6 million residents," notes Óscar Afonso, referring to an increase in immigrants of around 300,000 per year and considering that "the economy did not need so many," despite needing them "to grow ," arguing for a "different pattern of specialization."

According to the study's calculations, Portugal would need to receive 80,000 immigrants per year to be among the top half of the EU's richest countries by 2033. The document aims to "alert the need to align immigration with the economy's needs." "I think we should treat all human beings with dignity; that's the first point. That said, I think this study makes sense because we also don't want people to be mistreated and left here, mistreated, and without income . That's not what we want," he argued.

The economist summarizes that, based on the study's data, "Portugal has not exceeded 80% [of the EU average standard of living] since 2010 , contrary to official European Commission data," and will be practically at Romania's level in 2026, with 79.47% for Portugal and 79.45% for Romania. "Portugal will then drop to 21st place in 2026, the seventh-worst in the European Union , and could fall to 22nd, the sixth-worst, if Romania performs slightly better or we perform slightly worse," he warns.

The FEP director points out that, "in 1999, Romania's standard of living, compared to the European Union average, was 26.9%, and Portugal's was 85%," and that, "in 2026, Romania will be at 79.45% and Portugal at 79.47%. In other words, Romania went from 26.9% to 79.45%, and Portugal went from 85% to 79.47%, while we had more funds and still had this mediocre performance," he countered, noting that Romania grew 4% per year between 1999 and 2019, and Portugal 0.9%, and warned that, in the future, "without reforms, Portugal will be definitively overtaken by Romania" and "will drift to the tail end of Europe."