Government clarified President on immigration data

This wasn't the first time he'd done so; he'd already said so two weeks ago at a conference. This week, the President of the Republic once again raised doubts about the immigration figures released by the government. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa pointed out discrepancies between these figures (one million six hundred thousand) and the data released by the INE. The presidential doubts were immediately seized upon by various political parties to heighten uncertainty about the government's credibility.

Nascer do SOL asked the President of the Republic whether the Executive had clarified the figures it presented and the possible discrepancy. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa confirmed that clarifications were provided, and that the new data provided were sufficient to eliminate Belém's doubts. "Reading the clarification, one gets the feeling that AIMA is right, not INE," the President said. As he explained to our newspaper, "INE's figures contain less reliable variables than AIMA's."

Given the new data provided to the Presidency of the Republic, Marcelo considers himself enlightened, but remains concerned about the statistics. According to what he told our newspaper, the President recommends bringing forward a new census. The next one is scheduled for 2031, but given the profound changes that have occurred in the Portuguese population in recent years, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa believes that the survey of the Portuguese population should be brought forward: "We need to know whether we number 11 million or 12 million."

How is the number of immigrants determined? The Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA) always publishes immigration statistics using the same criteria: the number of foreigners with valid residence permits in Portugal. The latest data, released on April 8, 2025, reported a total of 1,546,521 legal foreign residents in Portugal.

According to the explanation given to Nascer do SOL, this report "introduced the corrected accounting for years prior to 2024." This occurred because the last count (which is reflected in the INE figures that raise doubts for the President) did not include the approximately 440,000 requests and processes related to expressions of interest pending at AIMA. The data provided in April already account for these requests.

In short, the data released by AIMA in April included expressions of interest that resulted in the issuance of residence permits. The discrepancy in the figures with those from the INE (National Institute of Statistics) is due to the fact that these new permits were recorded in the year the expression of interest was submitted. In other words, the official figures released by the INE were subsequently updated.

To confirm a fourfold increase in the number of immigrants in Portugal, between 2017 (421 thousand) and 2024 (1.545 million), the government used information from data provided by health, education and social security and the data confirms the huge increase in demand for these services. In education, the number of foreign students in public schools in the Ministry of Education network, between pre-school and secondary education, rose from 42,129 foreign students in 2016/2017, to 172,279 in the school year that has now ended.

In health, the number of consultations by foreign users in primary health care increased from 326,439 in 2017 to 1,408,683 in 2024. In the same period, the number of foreign users registered with the NHS and enrolled in primary health care increased from 328,780 to the current 871,377.

In 2017, there were 244,787 foreigners registered with Social Security; in 2024, these registered people increased to 1,030,681. This led to contributions increasing from 620 million euros in 2017 to 3,511 million euros in 2024.

Government accuses Socialist Party of discrediting immigration data. According to António Leitão Amaro, the Minister responsible for immigration, the Socialists are following the same strategy used in other countries regarding immigration data. "The strategy is to discredit official data, so that everything can be discussed without objective basis." For the Minister of the Presidency, this is an irresponsible strategy that has a justification: the current Secretary-General of the Socialist Party bears significant responsibility for the situation that has arisen regarding the lack of control over immigration in Portugal. The minister recalls that, before becoming the Minister of Internal Affairs who abolished the SEF (National Service for the Evidence of Emigration), José Luís Carneiro was the Secretary of State for Communities who instructed consulates to facilitate the entry processes for foreigners into Portugal. "He is deeply committed to what happened, and raising doubts about the credibility of statistical data is the best way to avoid responsibility," says Leitão Amaro.

The debate surrounding immigration figures promises to continue to generate debate, especially after the President of the Republic himself raised doubts on the matter. Marcelo's doubts have been used by left-wing parties as an argument against the measures the government approved in parliament with the support of Chega. In addition to the laws already approved, there remains the nationality law, whose debate and vote have been postponed until September.