Ruble Strengthening and Inflation Slowing. Financial Market Review, May 14

The Chinese yuan rate has fallen on the Moscow Exchange. The main trading session on the platform ended with the main indicators moving in different directions. The same can be seen on the American stock market. Oil prices have gone down

The currency and stock markets continue to show mixed dynamics: the ruble is strengthening, but stocks are showing mixed fluctuations. The Central Bank reports a decrease in net sales of currency by exporters and a record low demand for exchange currency. Annual inflation in Russia is slowing, despite the rise in prices in May.

Currency

By 19:00 Moscow time, the Chinese yuan exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange was 11.06 rubles, which is 6 kopecks lower than the closing level of the previous trade.

The official exchange rate of the US dollar against the ruble, announced by the Bank of Russia on May 15, fell by 0.33 rubles and amounted to 80.22 rubles, while the official exchange rate of the euro rose by 0.69 rubles and amounted to 90.38 rubles.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation calculates official rates based on data from financial statements of credit institutions based on the results of interbank conversion transactions on the over-the-counter foreign exchange market.

Net sales of currency by 29 major Russian exporters in April amounted to $10 billion, which is 2% less than in March, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. "Net sales of 29 companies from among the largest Russian exporters in April 2025 amounted to $10 billion, down 2% compared to the previous month due to the continuing decline in oil prices on world markets," the Central Bank notes.

At the same time, according to the regulator, the ratio of net sales of foreign currency to foreign exchange export revenue of the largest exporters in February 2025 amounted to 99%, an increase of 19 percentage points compared to January 2025. Demand for currency on the exchange and over-the-counter markets in April reached a minimum since the cessation of part of the currency trading on the Moscow Exchange, according to the documents of the Bank of Russia. "In April, the ruble continued to strengthen against the US dollar and the yuan. The main factor in maintaining this trend remains the demand and supply of foreign currency in the domestic market," the documents say. On the global currency market, the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies DXY fell and by 20:30 Moscow time was around 100.9 points.

Stock

The Moscow Exchange Index fell by 0.4% and closed at 2924 points. The RTS Index rose by 0.02% and closed the trading session at 1148 points.

Inflation in the Russian Federation from May 6 to 12, 2025 amounted to 0.06% after 0.03% from April 29 to May 5, 0.11% from April 22 to 28, 0.09% from April 15 to 21, 0.11% from April 8 to 14, and 0.16% from April 1 to 7, Rosstat reported on Wednesday. Since the beginning of the month, price growth by May 12 amounted to 0.08%, since the beginning of the year - 3.28%. Based on data for the end of April - beginning of May of this and last year, it follows that annual inflation in the Russian Federation as of May 12 slowed to 10.09% from 10.21% on May 5.

The main indicators of the US stock market showed mixed dynamics in the first half of the trading session. By 20:30 Moscow time, the Dow Jones industrial index had fallen by 0.3%, the S&P 500 index had lost about 0.1%, and the NASDAQ-100 had grown by 0.4%.

Oil

The price of Brent oil futures on the London ICE Futures exchange was around $66.5 per barrel by 20:30 Moscow time. The price of WTI oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange by this time was around $63.5 per barrel.

Global oil demand could grow by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, with the same increase expected in 2026, according to the May report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Thus, the demand growth estimate remained unchanged compared to the previous forecast.

In absolute terms, global oil demand in 2025 could be 105 million barrels per day, and in 2026, 106.28 million barrels per day. According to OPEC, about 1.2 million barrels per day of demand growth will come from Asian countries, including China and India, as well as from the Middle East and Latin America. The same situation will be observed in 2026.