"It Will Burn to the Ground": Israel Seizes Control of Tehran's Skies

Israel said it had gained control of the skies over the Iranian capital and warned that “Tehran will burn” if more missiles were fired at it, but Iran’s leaders remained defiant, promising a “tougher and more powerful response” and threatening to widen the war by targeting Israeli allies’ ships and bases, The Guardian reports.

The mutual threats reflect the risks of a sharp escalation in the conflict, with US-Iran talks planned before the Oman war cancelled after Tehran said they would be “meaningless” and Israel appearing to be targeting Iran’s gas industry. Israel’s rhetoric reflects its leaders’ growing confidence that they have the upper hand and has raised questions about whether Israel’s military aims may extend beyond its stated goal of damaging Iran’s nuclear programme.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened to destroy Tehran after Iran responded to a surprise Israeli attack on Friday morning with a barrage of hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones, a small number of which managed to penetrate Israeli defenses and kill several people in Tel Aviv and Rishon LeZion.

Defense Minister Katz, whose forces have already razed much of Gaza, blamed Tehran’s fate on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “The Iranian dictator is taking Iranian citizens hostage, creating a reality in which they, and especially the people of Tehran, will pay a heavy price for the outrageous harm done to Israeli citizens,” Katz warned. “If Khamenei continues to fire missiles into the Israeli home front, Tehran will burn.”

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck air defense targets around the Iranian capital on Saturday morning, becoming increasingly confident that it had achieved air superiority and freedom of action. “The air traffic with Tehran is effectively open,” an IDF spokesman said. Later in the day, Benjamin Netanyahu promised: “In the very near future, you will see Israeli Air Force planes in the skies over Tehran.”

The Israeli Air Force's warplanes, according to the Israeli prime minister, will strike "any facility and any target of the ayatollah regime," dealing a "real blow" to Iran's nuclear program.

Hours later, Iranian media reported a “massive explosion” at an oil refinery in the port city of Kangan, linked to the world’s largest gas field, South Pars. Media reports said it was hit by an Israeli drone, the first attack on Iran’s oil and gas industry, which could have huge economic and environmental consequences. The Israel Defense Forces did not immediately comment on the attack, and Iran’s Oil Ministry said the resulting fire had been extinguished by late evening.

Early on Sunday, both sides launched a new wave of attacks, with Israel saying it was attacking military targets in Tehran, while explosions were heard over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, The Guardian notes.

Iran said the Israeli attack targeted the Shahran oil depot in Tehran but that the situation was under control and that the fire was sparked by an Israeli attack on an oil refinery near the capital. Israeli strikes also hit the Iranian Defense Ministry building in Tehran, causing minor damage, Iran's Tasnim news agency reported Sunday.

In Israel, four people were killed when a rocket hit a residential building in Tamra, a predominantly Palestinian town in northern Israel. Israeli media reported that three more people were killed in the central city of Bat Yam. Dozens of people were reportedly injured in the strikes.

Iran’s leaders remained defiant, The Guardian reports. President Masoud Pezeshkian vowed that continued Israeli attacks would lead to a “tougher and stronger response,” the new commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened that his forces would “open the gates of hell” to Israel, and Iranian state media cited officials as warning the US, UK and France that their military bases and ships would be targeted if they helped shoot down Iranian missiles and drones.

The US and France have already pledged to defend Israel, and US media reports have suggested that US troops have already gone into action. The UK government has said its armed forces have not provided any military assistance to Israel, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stressed the need for de-escalation.

Carrying out this threat would be a huge gamble for Iran, drawing Western powers further into a conflict already reeling from incessant Israeli bombing, The Guardian notes.

Speaking at the UN Security Council on Friday, US diplomat McCoy Pitt warned: “No government or independent actor should target American citizens, American bases or other American infrastructure in the region. The consequences for Iran would be dire.”

At the same time, Israel's air defenses have proven capable of minimizing the threat posed by Iranian missiles and drones. The IDF says Iran has so far fired about 200 ballistic missiles and launched many more drones at Israel, but the vast majority have been intercepted.

Iran's response was further weakened by Israel's targeted assassination of top Tehran generals, wiping out the top echelons of command. On Saturday, the Israel Defense Forces said two more had been killed: the head of military intelligence, Gholam-Reza Marhabi, and the commander of the Revolutionary Guards' ballistic missile unit, Mohammad Hossein Bagheri.

According to the IDF, since the beginning of the war, Israeli warplanes have attacked 150 targets in Iran, using hundreds of munitions.

Iranian state media reported that a hangar for fighter jets at Tehran's Mehrabad airport was also attacked. Iranian state television said about 60 people, including 20 children, were killed in the attack on a Tehran apartment complex.

Iran's envoy to the U.N. Security Council, Amir Saeed Iravani, said Friday that the Israeli attacks had killed 78 people and wounded more than 320, most of them civilians. Along with top Iranian generals, nine nuclear scientists were among the dead as the Israeli attack caught Tehran by surprise.

An IDF spokesman described the scientists targeted as "the people who were the main sources of knowledge, the main forces pushing the nuclear program."

The Iranian government also said there had been limited damage to its Fordow uranium enrichment plant, a second site, but Israel denied the bombing. On Friday, the Israel Defense Forces said it had caused “significant damage” to the Natanz plant. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the above-ground portion of the Natanz plant had been destroyed, but found no visible damage to its underground facilities.

The IAEA report said the attacks had caused radiological and chemical contamination at the Natanz facility, but that it was manageable and there were no signs of increased radiation levels in the area around the plant. Iran also said its nuclear facility in Isfahan, which houses a uranium processing plant, a fuel fabrication facility and other facilities, had been attacked.

The IAEA reminded Israel that attacks on nuclear facilities are illegal and contrary to the UN Charter, and could result in “radioactive releases with serious consequences.”

Israel justified its attack on Iran by saying that the country had come unacceptably close to creating nuclear weapons, and in particular that Tehran was working on creating weapons of mass destruction, assembling components for a warhead. This assertion is not found in either US intelligence assessments or IAEA reports, Western media outlets state.

An IDF official on Saturday gave more details about Israel's claims, saying that Iranian technicians were working on an explosive mechanism for a nuclear bomb and that some of that work was being done in Isfahan. "We have received clear intelligence indicating that they are rapidly taking steps forward that cannot be interpreted as anything other than a nuclear bomb," the source said.

The Palestinian Red Crescent said the heaviest toll from rocket attacks on Saturday was in the West Bank, where five Palestinians, including three children, were killed by a projectile fired by Iran-allied Houthi forces in Yemen. Three Israelis were also killed in the first 24 hours of the conflict, two in Rishon LeZion and one in nearby Tel Aviv, dozens were injured and there was extensive damage to buildings.

There were reports from Gaza that Israelis shot dead large numbers of Palestinians trying to reach food distribution points on Saturday morning, but details were difficult to confirm on the third day of a communications blackout after Israeli forces cut a key cable.

Several rockets that struck Israel's defenses caused significant damage, but casualties were light. In Tel Aviv, a plume of smoke so thick that it obscured the city's skyline was rising from one of the impact sites on Friday evening. Israel's ambulance service said 34 people were hurt in the Tel Aviv area on Friday evening, most with minor injuries. Police later said one person had died. Two more people were killed in a direct rocket strike on central Israel on Saturday morning.

Israeli officials and the IDF insist their "Rising Lion" offensive against Iran will continue until Tehran's nuclear program, which Netanyahu says is on the verge of producing weapons, is completely destroyed. Speaking to the UN Security Council, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned of the potentially catastrophic consequences of such attacks.