''Climate change has increased fire risk and damage''

Scientists have been warning about climate change for years, unusual weather events such as increasing temperatures and prolonged droughts are triggering forest fires. The number of fires in Türkiye has exceeded 720 in a week. Both sides of the Aegean are struggling with forest fires. The fires are being brought under control with difficulty due to winds ranging from 50 to 85 kilometers per hour. According to experts, fires are not just a 'problem of the summer season'. It is a new reality spreading to 8 months of the year with the deepening impact of the climate crisis.

Underlining that Türkiye is located in the Mediterranean basin, one of the regions that will be most affected by climate change on a global scale according to IPCC reports, Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa Faculty of Forestry academic member Dr. Merih Göltaş said that global warming increases the risk and damage of fires.

The flames that have engulfed Türkiye's western provinces are systematic and large-scale events that cannot be explained by human error or technical malfunctions. Noting that global warming could increase large-scale disasters such as the 'Mega Fires' in 2021, Göltaş said, "According to the optimistic scenario, an increase of 1.5 to 2.5 degrees in Türkiye's average temperature by 2100, and a pessimistic scenario of 5 to 6.5 degrees, and a decrease in precipitation in the southern and western regions are predicted. If measures are not taken for global warming, droughts will intensify, and we will encounter more frequent, longer and more intense heat waves."

''Global warming could increase 'mega fires''

Göltaş, who stated that temperatures in the Aegean, Mediterranean and Southeastern Anatolia regions in particular could break new records and cause increases in fire risk and danger, intensity, number and burned area, said, "Global warming could also increase the frequency of large-scale disasters such as the 'Mega Fires' in 2021. We are familiar with fires in the Mediterranean and Aegean, but due to increasing temperatures and dry air waves, some parts of the Marmara and even the Black Sea could also be at risk in the future. In the fires we are currently experiencing in the Aegean, extreme drought caused by global warming, winds exceeding 110 kilometers and individual factors made it difficult to control the fires."

"Fire season extended to 8 months"

Göltaş stated that the fire season has increased to eight months between April and November due to the early start of summer temperatures and the prolonged dry period, and that the increase in the number of days with favorable weather conditions for fires makes it difficult to control them and causes more forest damage.

An average of 2,000 fires occur in Türkiye every year. According to the statistics of the General Directorate of Forestry, this number was around 1,900 between 1988-2000, and increased to approximately 2,100 between 2000-2011. From 2011 to the present, it has approached 2,700. Noting that approximately 10,000 hectares of forest area are burned every year with these fires, Göltaş said, "The increase in the intensity and duration of extreme weather conditions due to climate change increases both the number and damage of fires. In 2021, 140,000 hectares of forest area burned, and the area that would burn in almost 14 years was destroyed in one year. After this date, we also started using the concept of 'mega fire'."

"Theoretically, nine out of every 10 fires can be prevented"

Göltaş said, "Like other countries in the Mediterranean basin, our country has had forest fires in the past, today and unfortunately will in the future. When we look at the main causes of fires, 10 percent are natural and 90 percent are human-caused. This means that nine out of every 10 fires can be prevented with education and awareness." Reminding that we have individual responsibilities as citizens, Göltaş said, "We should keep our distance from fire, especially in hot and dry weather, and avoid all risky behaviors such as picnics with fire, throwing cigarette butts or burning stubble."

''It can be both a result and a cause of global warming''

Drawing attention to the adverse effect of forest fires, Göltaş said, "Fires cause the carbon stored in trees to be released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. This creates a cycle that further exacerbates global warming. In other words, forest fires can be both a result and a cause of global warming."

Extreme wildfires more than double worldwide

Göltaş concluded his words as follows: ''NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites detect active forest fires twice a day. The data scientists have examined for more than 20 years reveals that extreme forest fires are becoming more frequent, intense and large. The greatest increase in extreme fires occurred in the temperate coniferous forests of the Western United States and the boreal forests of northern North America and Russia. Studies indicate that extreme fire events could increase by 14 percent in 2030, 30 percent in 2050 and 50 percent by the end of the century.''

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Reporter: News Center