Nigel Farage on course to be next PM in bombshell data boost for Reform UK

OPINION

Reform UK is on course to form at least a minority government with Nigel Farage as Prime Minister, according to evaluation by Electoral Calculus. The same organisation - crunching data on behalf of the Telegraph - has since analysed results from recent local elections and found Labour would lose all but three of the seats it holds in the areas which voted, with Reform UK winning 81.

Overall, according to its latest update just before the May 1 elections, Reform would win 245 seats, which - combined with a predicted 94 seats for the Tories - would be enough to pass the 326-threshold to govern in coalition. The post-local election analysis meanwhile predicted what would happen in each of the 145 constituencies where a vote was held. Justifying Farage's strategy of appealing to both Labour and Tory voters, Electoral Calculus found just 19 of the predicted new Reform UK seats are held by the Conservatives, while 58 are held by Labour.

More worrying for Labour, Sir Keir Starmer's party could lose some seats to the Greens, indicating the risk to the PM of trying to steal a march on Reform with tougher immigration policies. What could win votes in the Red Wall would likely alienate voters in London, although Reform has jumped ahead of the Tories in the capital while Labour's support in London has crashed by 13% since the general election last July.

Reform will be eyeing success in future Welsh elections meanwhile, as Farage's party gains ground in more traditional Labour heartlands, with its mix of low taxes and regulations coupled with patriotic economic interventionism winning beyond the Tory shires.

Although both Farage and his Tory counterpart Kemi Badenoch have understandably ruled out any formal nationwide deal, in the event Reform has the most seats in the House of Commons but can only govern with the Tories as a minority partner, it seems likely some deal would be reached. That would likely finish off the Conservative Party for good as it became subject to an effective takeover.

That all being said, Reform's polling numbers are climbing into majority-in-Parliament territory. Freshwater Strategy for City AM, for instance, has Reform on 32% and 10 points ahead of Labour. BMG for The i newspaper also has Reform 10 points clear of Sir Keir's party, again on 32%. In fact every poll since May 1 has Reform in the lead.

Reform must now guard against future infighting and professional embarrassment, as well as being mindful of the responsibility which comes with leading councils and controlling big budgets. A change of leadership for the Tories could also hurt Farage, as could a turnaround in fortunes for Labour (with access to the levers of the State) as well as a major global crisis.

Indeed, in Canada, the Canadian Conservatives were well on course for victory until the Trump tariffs blew the party off course - not least because the Canadian Tories had a closer association with the US President - and a rally-around-the-flag effect pushed the Liberals over the line. Reform cannot rule out a similar last-minute upset.

That said, the omens still look good for Farage and Electoral Calculus is the latest organisation to put a smile on the Reform chief's face. Much could of course change between now and 2029 - when the next general election is slated for - but this remarkable rise, in an era of vibes, authenticity and consumerist voters, shows no sign of reversing.