Expect an above-average hurricane season, says NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season.

According to the federal climate and weather agency, the season — which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 each year — has a 60 per cent chance of an above-normal season, a 30 per cent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 per cent chance of a below-normal season.

They are also forecasting between 13 to 19 named storms, with six to 10 of them becoming hurricanes. Of those, three to five are forecast to be major hurricanes (from Category 3 to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale). They have a 70 per cent confidence in these predictions.

Last year, NOAA forecasted between 18 to 25 named storms, with 8 to 13 becoming hurricanes. And in the end, there were 18 named storms and 10 hurricanes.

"The 2024 hurricane season outlook that was issued in May last year, was right on the money," said Laura Grimm, acting NOAA administrator in a press conference.

Three of those storms affected Canada in 2024.

The remnants of Hurricane Beryl — which was a major hurricane that caused widespread damage throughout the Caribbean — was responsible for one death in Wolfville, N.S., in July due to flash flooding. It also caused two tornadoes near London, Ont.

The most significant to hit Canada was Hurricane Debby which became an extratropical storm by the time it hit Quebec in August. According to the Insurance Bureau of Canada, it was the costliest severe weather event in Quebec's history, causing almost $2.5 billion in damages due to flooding.

About a week later, the remnants of Hurricane Ernesto hit Newfoundland with minimal impacts.

Since 2023, the Atlantic Ocean has been significantly warmer than average due to global warming. The oceans have absorbed roughly 90 per cent of the warming over the past few decades as we continue to release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, mostly from burning fossil fuels.

Graham noted that, although the warmer Atlantic Ocean temperature hasn't influenced the number of storms we're seeing in a hurricane season, it is contributing to more rainfall, as the atmosphere is now holding more moisture.

However, it is believed that the warmer temperatures have contributed to rapid intensification, as was the case with Hurricane Otis in 2023, which strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 in less than 24 hours. It slammed into Acapulco, Mexico, killing at least 100 people who were caught by surprise by the intensification.

But Graham said that their forecasts concerning rapid intensification has been getting better.

"We saw the forecast improvements first-hand in 2024," he said. "The skill is better than ever. It was amazing to watch in 2024. Helene was forecast to be a major hurricane … before it was even a depression. It was a bunch of clouds, a couple of thunderstorms."

When asked about the Trump administration's cuts and how that could affect the forecast and local offices, Grimm said that it wasn't an issue.

"Weather prediction, modelling and protecting human lives and property is our top priority," she said. "We are fully staffed at the hurricane centre and we definitely are ready to go and we are really making this a top priority for this administration, for NOAA, for the department of commerce. So we are very supportive of our national weather staff."

About 10 per cent of NOAA's workforce has been cut.

Most of the press conference centred around preparedness for those who may be in the path of any hurricane.

They stressed that people should begin preparations before any hurricanes even develop.

"There are no lines for supplies today. No lines for gas, no lines for plywood, no lines for water," said Ken Graham, director, NOAA's National Weather Service. "So while there're no lines, it's a good time to go out there and get your supplies and your kit [and] put it together."

He also said that people who are further inland and think they may not experience the effects from a hurricane should still prepare.

"Everything's in place for an above-average season," Graham said. "There's no such thing as 'Hurricane Just a' ... There's no such thing as just a Cat 1, there's no such thing as just a Cat 2, just a Cat 3. Every one of them is different."

"We're prepared here at NOAA," he said. "Are you?"