From Luis Caputo to Cristina: the week in which everyone was once again talking about a key variable for the dollar.

The Argentine balance of payments data published this week by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) once again raised red flags and raised alarms about the sustainability of Javier Milei and Luis Caputo's economic program , which is anchored by a fiscal and exchange rate (a dollar-contained system) that is driving down inflation.

In the first three months of 2025, $5.191 billion more flows out of the country than inflows were recorded , reported INDEC. Meanwhile, the Central Bank (BCRA) reported that the trend continued in April and May, although it slowed last month and the imbalance was $149 million . Argentina has now had its external accounts in the red for 12 consecutive months, despite the fact that there is more foreign currency from the countryside in the current quarter.

That's why the market continues to wonder whether this model will hold up after the October legislative elections , whether the government will correct the situation with a devaluation, or whether the constant outflow of dollars, greater than the inflow of foreign currency, will eventually explode.

Although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Argentine authorities projected that the "current account deficit" this year would be equivalent to 0.4% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), approximately US$2.5 billion, the Secretary of Economic Policy, José Luis Daza, admitted that this imbalance will climb to approximately 2% .

Constantino Hevia , associate professor in the Department of Economics at Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT), believes that "it's normal in stabilization programs for the real exchange rate to fall and for there to be a consumption boom." " The difference today compared to previous historical experiences is who is running the deficit: it's the private sector, not the public sector , because there's a fiscal surplus," he notes.

Explaining the imbalance through private sector activity, Hevia expects individuals to use their dollars and reduce their asset stock, while businesses can borrow.

Along the same lines, economists at Facimex Valores downplay the situation. "While the current account deficit is a factor worth monitoring, multiple reasons lead us to view it with little concern," they wrote in their latest report. One of those reasons is that "with a primary surplus and a flexible exchange rate, if the current account deficit persists, it will entirely reflect a private sector deficit."

In comparative terms, the first-quarter figures are in line with the 2013-2024 average and were considerably lower than those of the first quarter of 2017 (a deficit of $9.5 billion) and 2018 (a deficit of $12 billion), the pre-crisis period.

Recently, the consulting firm Equilibra estimated that, given the financial needs of the coming years, the country will require nearly US$215 billion by 2030 to maintain activity and refinance its debts. Much of this foreign currency will have to come from the private sector, which has never before had such a large amount of credit.