Orange prices on the rise in Italy: what's behind it

The increase in the price of oranges in the last period, if observed closely, sheds light on a complex network of problems linked to the agricultural world but also to climatic, economic and geopolitical events that contribute to determining the final value of the product.

To better understand what happened, the facts provided by ISMEA in the report “Citrus Trends – 1/2025” published in May 2025 help us understand what happened, revealing a series of dynamics that concern both national production and the international context .

What does the drop in orange production have to do with it?

Globally, the 2024/25 citrus campaign saw an estimated world production of 45.2 million tonnes, down 1.5% compared to the previous season. This slowdown, although moderate, is mainly due to the reduction of harvests in key countries such as the United States, Egypt and Turkey. This is despite Brazil — the world's leading producer — recording an increase in production, the overall balance remains negative.

In Europe, the trend is similar: the European Union has lost about 70 thousand tons of production compared to the previous year. A contraction that, added to the growing demand and the increases in the prices of many raw materials and logistics services, has contributed to maintaining high international prices, both for exports and imports.

The case of Italian oranges

Looking at Italy, the situation is even more delicate. Our country, traditionally among the European leaders in citrus production , has recorded a 3% decrease in the production area in the last year. A figure that, if not countered by new policies to support the sector, risks becoming structural.

Furthermore, the 2024/25 campaign started approximately two weeks later than normal calendars, due to unfavorable weather conditions and extreme climatic events that negatively affected the ripening of the fruit.

The result? Oranges initially of medium-small size and poorly pigmented on the skin, less attractive for both the domestic and foreign markets. Only later in the campaign did the organoleptic qualities return to satisfactory levels, with some lots reaching peaks of excellence.

In this non-optimal production scenario, prices at source have naturally increased compared to both the previous campaign and the average of recent years. However, the differential with 2023/24 has narrowed as the weeks have passed, due to a less lively demand from the processing industry, which has slowed down the pace of sales, with knock-on effects on price lists.

It must be said, in fact, that the industrial sector plays an important role in the sustainability of the sector: if the transformation slows down, the entire commercial mechanism becomes rigid. Producers tend to hold on to the product waiting for better conditions, or are forced to give in to less advantageous conditions.

Exports soar, imports fall

An interesting fact comes from foreign trade: in the first three months of the current campaign, exports of Italian oranges increased by 19% compared to the average of the last three years, confirming the growing appeal of the Made in Italy product on international markets. This has contributed to further reducing the supply available on the domestic market, exerting a further upward push on prices.

At the same time, imports have decreased , and this is another determining factor. Fewer imported oranges means less possibility of controlling domestic prices with foreign products, which in some years act as a safety valve for the market.

On the domestic consumption side, the situation is relatively stable in terms of purchased volumes, at least in the period between October 2024 and February 2025. However, the increase in the average selling price (+2.5%) has led to a 2% growth in spending by Italian families compared to the same period of the previous year. This data indicates that, at least so far, there has been no decline in domestic demand, but the stability of consumption is being tested by price lists that show no signs of decreasing.

In other words: Italians buy the same amount of oranges, but pay more .